Politics

Fayulu Clear Winner in Congo Elections-Financial Times

Martin Fayulu was the clear winner of the Democratic Republic of Congo’s presidential elections last month, a Financial Times analysis of two separate collections of voting data shows, contradicting claims from authorities that rival contender Felix Tshisekedi had won the historic vote.

The analysis points to huge fraud in the first change of power since Joseph Kabila took over the presidency of the mineral-rich central African nation almost 18 years ago. It is likely to embolden critics of Mr Kabila who suspect the Congolese leader is seeking to cling on to power through a deal with Mr Tshisekedi.

According to a trove of election data seen by the FT and representing 86 per cent of total votes cast across the country, Mr Fayulu won 59.4 per cent of the vote. Rival opposition candidate Mr Tshisekedi, who was declared the surprise winner last week, finished second with 19 per cent, according to this set of data.

An FT analysis of a separate set of voting results collected manually by the Catholic Church’s 40,000 observers and representing 43 per cent of turnout shows that Mr Fayulu secured 62.8 per cent of this sample of votes. The results gathered across 28,733 polling points match almost perfectly the more extensive set of official results seen by the FT.

The larger set of data, a spreadsheet containing more than 49,000 records, contains the true electronically-fed results that authorities have sought to conceal, according to a person with direct knowledge of how the data were obtained. The person, who is close to Mr Fayulu’s camp, asked for anonymity because the data contradict the electoral commission’s official declaration.

DR Congo

Fayulu has reason to thank voting machines he once feared

The figures provided are electronic tallies from 62,716 voting machines across the country and were obtained from the electoral commission’s central database before the results were announced last week, the person said.

An FT analysis of the tallies shows a near perfect correlation with the Church’s partial results — with a correlation coefficient ranging from 0.976 to 0.991 for each of the three leading candidates (1 representing a perfect match).

The new figures support the Church’s assertion last week that the electoral commission published false results.

“It is extremely difficult to believe . . . that tens of thousands of lines of data could have been fabricated on short notice to produce these results without signs of tampering,” said Jason Stearns, director of the Congo Research Group at the Center on International Cooperation, a New York think-tank, who also reviewed the leaked data. “This highlights the need for a full, scrupulous audit of the election tallies.”

The electoral commission denied its results were fraudulent. Barnabé Kikaya Bin Karubi, chief diplomatic adviser to Mr Kabila, said it would be up to the constitutional court to decide on the validity of the election and declined to comment on any potential fraud. Gilbert Kankonde Nkashama, a spokesman for Mr Tshisekedi, said it was impossible that Mr Fayulu had won the election and questioned the independence of the Catholic Church.

Congo’s moment of truth

Mr Fayulu is seeking to overturn the result in the constitutional court, although the court’s impartiality has also been questioned.

Congo, a former Belgian colony of 80m people, has held only four elections since independence in 1960 and has never before had a transfer of power through the ballot box. Mr Kabila was due to step down in 2016 but elections were delayed until street protests and regional pressure forced him to hold the vote.

Mr Kabila’s ruling coalition had sought to retain control of the presidency through Emmanuel Shadary, his chosen successor. Mr Fayulu’s supporters have alleged that when voters failed to come out for Mr Shadary in sufficient numbers — he finished third — the election commission was told to install Mr Tshisekedi instead.

Voting data in Congo points to mass fraud

According to the results seen by the FT, Mr Fayulu received more than 9.3m votes, 3m more than the electoral commission announced, and won in 19 of Congo’s 26 provinces, including the capital Kinshasa and the heavily populated eastern provinces of North Kivu and South Kivu.

In contrast, Mr Tshisekedi scored 3m votes, the data indicate, 4.1m fewer than the electoral commission showed, while Mr Shadary secured 2.9m votes, or 1.5m votes fewer than the published tally.

The data show the results of 15.7m out of the 18.3m votes that were cast on election day, but the missing votes could not have resulted in a different winner. Malfunctions in voting machines meant that not all vote tallies were transmitted to the central database, the person with knowledge of the database said.

The file takes the form of a spreadsheet of comma-separated values, a format used by many software packages to store tabular data, and runs to more than 49,000 rows. Each polling station is identified by a unique six-digit number.

The FT analysis also found no significant evidence that the data deviated from Benford’s law, a statistical test commonly used in fields such as forensic accounting to identify fraudulent data.

 

(Source: Financial Times)

23 Comments

  1. Simpito Mukandwa

    Mwe Lesa twafweni

  2. Anthony chitefu

    Lord of mercy luk 4 congoliz people

  3. One zed manex

    This is Africa where power is so sweet that one prefer to see millions of people die to clinch to power.its a shame what us Africans are showing to the world

  4. Alfred kashiya

    Please our leaders be honest in every thing you do look what is happening in Zimbabwe please the bloodshed in droping to young youth and then back years Congo was in war, do these people cares for the nation

  5. Lincoln

    WE SHOULD ALL ACTIVELY PETITION THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY TO INTERVEREN TO INSURE THE WILL OF THE PEOPLE OF DRC IS UPHELD AND SECURED. WE HAVE HAD ENOUGH RIGGING, HOW LONG CAN WE GO ON LIKE THIS. LOOK AT ZIMBABWE, THE COUNTY HAS GONE FROM BAD TO WORSE. WHICH COUNTRY WILL BE NEXT, LETS HOPE IT’S NOT ZAMBIA.

  6. Vincent k siuluta

    Whats wrong with us Africans,God help us.

  7. Lukonde

    PETITION? I Aint surprised it Oso happend in Zambia.

  8. Takondwa01

    Safety of people has to come first. The church shoul

  9. Future

    I cant see the role and importance of electrol cominsion especialy in African countrie. America is a big region, but they held their elections in just two days time and anounce the results…. i ndont kow where we ar heading to…

  10. Muvado

    Shame African

  11. Chilankalipa

    Ishi mbwa sha mu Africa kuwayawaya fye. I disown this continent although I will miss the circus. Stupid idiots.

  12. Fines@five,five

    Thank you Our God pleease help us live in peace not in wars
    We only have one ZAMBIA and no where to go
    Edgar ,jump down or else the western will clump you down
    Chikala Kabila amatole ya fota kwingila ku ICC cage the bagger he has done more harm
    Munagagwa chikala come in the open and resign
    The years has come for new leaders

  13. Kangwa

    In my own view, the A.U must wake up from slumber and begin to deal with issues surrounding the continent of Africa seriously. What is happening in DRC is not a small thing and it’s now appears to be an African problem. Whenever there elections in Africa, the Losers do not concede the defeat. We have seen this in the recent passed in countries like Zimbabwe, zambia, Angola, Mozambique, Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Gambia, Gabon and now Congo DRC. Elections in Africa is believed to be free and fair when the electro commission announces the results in your favour and if it’s contrary to your expectations, then the elections has been rigged. So these are some of the issues that must be on the agenda of the AU whenever they meet in Addis Ababa for the next meetings to come. Africa as a continent has continued to punch below her weight bcoz of civil wars and conflicts in many African countries and some of our leaders have chosen that path. It’s so unfortunate that a continent of over a billion population with full of natural resources is still struggling to govern itself. No wonder the Chinese are conquering us by the day and we wonder why? A.U must wake up and ensure that the rule of law of democracy is observed and that the transition of power is done in accordance with the law.
    I stand to be corrected with my posting thank you.

    • RiggingPF

      @Kangwa, the problem is leaders tasting the craving of power and committing crimes while in office that motivates them conduct unfree and unfair elections known as rigging. Be reminded that it’s those in power who rig elections.

  14. Charles

    Elections are like exams.If you fail just go and rewrite.Do plunge the country into civil strife.What guarantee does Catholics ‘ results have as unadulterated.

  15. Charles

    Elections are like exams.If you fail just go and rewrite.Do not plunge the country into civil strife.What guarantee does Catholics ‘ results have as unadulterated.

  16. Howard Chiluba

    This is why Africans we can’t progress!

  17. Majoni Tyson

    God bless de pipo of congo

  18. Henry

    Please God, help us with our leaders.

  19. Mwebantu

    A big lesson to Zambia is all we can see in the DRC scenario. The current Zambian constitution is not ambigeous at all, contrally to some beliefs. No one president should stay a day longer than 10 years as this is the reason for the Mugabe’s and Kabila’s misrule. See at Uganda and that old man. Munanagwa is no different from Mugabe!

  20. Dr Fonicks

    The problem we have as most of my colleagues have alluded to is power hungryness by African leaders. The other big Issue is that the so called AU is like a toothless bull dog that barks but can’t bite. as for the crisis in the DRC, the best to do is have a recount except that it is in most cases difficult to uproot a ruling party in such a situation because even the courts are compromised. I hope that the situation be dealt with the measures it deserves. Let us keep our fingers crossed and pray that God intervene because any strife in Congo spills over into Zambia. our brothers and sisters have suffered more than enough. We seek guidance from the creator and sustainer of the universe.

  21. Phillip

    Both Zimbabwe and SEX must become mandate colonies like it happened in Namibia, for at least 10 yrs so that politics can be straightened.

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