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EIU Sees PF Victory in 2021

The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) expects the Patriotic Front of President Edgar

Lungu to remain in power beyond 2021, but warns that the government will become increasingly unpopular due to economic mismanagement and deepening autocracy.

In its latest release, the EIU has stated that the PF’s central committee support for President Lungu would help secure an adoption and subsequent win in the coming elections.

“By the time of the election in 2021, the possibility of Zambia’s being caught in a debt trap – characterized by a loss of economic sovereignty to creditors – will be a key concern among voters. Because of high debt-servicing costs, fiscal space will also have been tightened, causing salaries to be frozen and subsidies cut. With Mr Lungu’s popular support looking weaker than ever, we expect elections to be neither free nor fair, with the government making maximal use of its incumbency advantages. The United Party for National Development (UPND), together with a new generation of opposition parties, will have to surmount these challenges,” the EIU stated. “A revitalised Movement for Multiparty Democracy (a former ruling party) could also emerge as a notable political force. The UPND’s candidate is likely to present a reasonable challenge to Mr Lungu in the presidential election, but the party has lost its way since the 2016 election. The opposition vote is also vulnerable to fragmentation unless alliances are formed. Our baseline forecast remains that (amid deep popular dissatisfaction) Mr Lungu will win in 2021, but only by further eroding democratic checks and balances. This forecast could easily change if opposition parties agree to form a broad-based coalition.”

It stated that Zambia will face substantial threats to underlying political stability between 2019 and 2023 and warns that simmering popular frustration over economic and political grievances could quickly turn violent.

“The run-up to the 2021 legislative and presidential elections will be an especially unstable period, during which a vulnerable government will narrow the political space aggressively and escalate crackdowns. Another layer of potential risk emanates from the growing influence of China in Zambia’s affairs, with growing suspicion that to get debt relief the government plans to sell off key state assets to China,” EIU stated. “This is not just an abstract concern: in late 2018 the issue caused rioting in the city of Kitwe. As public distrust of the government grows, open dissatisfaction and the administration’s intolerance of criticism will create a volatile mix. Protests could turn violent and, if disorder becomes widespread, extra security powers could come into force.”

It stated that extra security, on one hand, could act as a mechanism for bolstering overall stability.

“…on the other, it would reinforce perceptions that Zambia is staggering towards autocracy and exacerbate underlying social tensions. In May, the justice minister, Given Lubinda, extended the work of a controversial body known as the National Dialogue Forum (NDF), allowing it to continue adopting draft bills to amend the constitution and pre-existing legislation, such as the Public Order Act of 1955,” it stated. “The NDF’s recommendations will be voted on by a parliament in which the government commands a comfortable majority of legislators. The NDF’s work has become bitterly politicised, with opposition parties alleging that any changes will be biased in favour of the PF. In the run-up to the 2021 elections, internal power struggles will take place within the PF. As Mr Lungu works to retain the presidency in 2021, potential rivals will be purged from the cabinetcand possibly the party before PF nominations in 2020. After a ruling by the Constitutional Court declaring that he was eligible to stand for another term (his critics claim that he has already served the maximum of two), the president publicly hinted that some party factions had been manoeuvring to seek the candidacy were he to be barred from standing.”

On international relations, the EIU states that Zambia’s relations with Western donors and multilateral financial institutions will deteriorate.

“The IMF is not expected to agree a deal with Zambia within the forecast period, and traditional donors (including the UK, the EU and the US) will also stay away amid concerns about corruption, authoritarianism and uncontrolled borrowing. Spurned by the West, Zambia will continue to deepen its dependency on its main bilateral creditor, China. In exchange, Chinese state-owned lenders will probably agree to debt restructuring, preventing a sovereign default. However, the restructuring will be on the proviso that the government borrows more (albeit at a lower rate) for a string of Chinese-contracted infrastructure projects, and potentially allows debt-for-equity swaps on state-owned enterprises,” stated EIU. “As a consequence, the government’s dependence on China will be a double-edged sword, providing some financial relief in the short term, but compromising relations with Western donors and investors (many of whom regard an IMF package as indispensable), as well as jeopardising long-term debt sustainability.”

58 Comments

  1. adam

    Nooooooo it will not happen

  2. Mapesho

    Oh so aba ka red they will need coalition to be in govt. That’s sad! They can’t make it own their own?Leadership yamuya ya ilebepaisha.

  3. Sam

    It will be like that peoples WILL VIVA PF VIVA ECL

  4. Banda

    Pf 2021 again zero papa/oga

  5. Sam

    PF VIVA Yamuyaya nafuti ECL

  6. peace man

    god forbid

  7. Kapijimpanga

    Adam be very careful you will die for nothing if still believe in upnd upnd is an opposition of insults not an opposition to form gvt my friend tonedown

  8. Highly connected

    No, 2021 is for another person. If in PF as a party there is shortage leaders, we don’t face the challenge as a country. In KK time people could vote for a party changed they are now voting for a person. Us a beam balance to examine what pf has done so fer, is it good or bad? Then people will cast their votes according to what they wanted.

  9. Sam

    Tell them bro pf VIVA

  10. T star

    Patriotic Front Mpaka litente Kolopa Nafuti Viva ECL

  11. Kazungo Kendrick

    Stupid people don’t know what, will happen in 2021, you just wait and see. If it’s not upnd then democratic party will rule, we are sick and fucking tired of this people Know as PAYA FARMER, pfools, you will match out nonsense

    • Gershom ingwe

      Those insults that’s why people are vote for you because pakamwa patukwana kuipa we don’t want make insults no wornda why we trust ECL Viva PF

  12. Truestory

    Prophet of doom. Not in Zambia EIU go else were and make these alarming useless statements, finshi fyamikola pakulatinya abantu in this way? Why can’t you say something sensible about this country for once. If it means PF going, it will go but Zambia won’t be in this situation just becoz PF wants to continue ruling this country No. And no innocent blood will be shed in this country unless that of useless carders yes, pantu malibu yakuilombela not for that innocent peace loving Christian in Zambia. Tafyakabombe.

  13. Winnipeg Nyirongo

    Ba EIU just mind your own business. Don’t talk about the Zambian Democracy. The Zambians are the ones who know whom they are going to vote for in 2021 because they know the challenges which they are passing through.

  14. Kubeja Badaala

    This headline by Sunday Chanda is misleading. The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) report only talks about the Patriotic Front of President Edgar Lungu remaining in power beyond 2021, but warns that the government will become increasingly unpopular due to economic mismanagement and deepening autocracy. The winning is therefore not guaranteed.

  15. Kings

    Pf Yes, But Not With Lungu, He Is Useless, No Vision For This Nation.

  16. Wezi

    The truth hurts.When you are hurt……..what comes out?…… Is nothing but insults.

  17. Tuli Bantu

    EIU, bakutuma, has pf paid you to intimidate people? If they have paid you then go and tell your family to vote for pf in 2021, not Zambians, As for Zambians at large they know what they want and it’s not good to sell people’s freedom at the expense of lungu, as for me, am tired of these high cost of living and I will vote for another party or not voting coz it’s just a shier west of time bettering other people with my vote, vitidyela masuku pamutu, veve vikudya va ulele ife amend timavutika pamizela povota tigula vintu vodula, EIU, go and tell your family.

  18. Oh no!

    Chwakamwenaku akawina.

    • msm

      pf the only pipo who will vote for u r those few individuals eating And enjoying with u not even your cadres coz we r suffering with them.They may pretend for now but trust me it will be the wast defeat ever,

  19. LUNGU

    U WANT ME TO BRING FOOD ON UR TABLE MWANYA KANSHI 7 SEVEN PROVINCE THEY VOTE 4 ME

  20. Gershom ingwe

    Kikiki tell them Paka ritente

  21. LUBINDA Mwendabai

    But to tell you the trueth,2021 is still another chance direct from god giving another mandate to mr Edgar lungu chagwa.the man is just very lucky.the death of father Michael chilufya sata has opened tidings and lucky moments for bwana ecl.whether some people like or hate it,Mr Edgar lungu is just Anointed. You will say anything today against,but u ar toiling yoself.lozis say, satamile mulimu akuna yakatamulula.meaning what ever god has set in place no one can do against.god himself will Remove him not because of hate speach.plz checky,and respect god’s anointed ones.you pipo you ar too talkative fo nothing.time is set by god for lungu to go.not set by you.the wise will remember ma word .u noise makers keep it up.u ar right.but time will tell.stop evil suggestion against the Anointed ones.

    • upd

      pf is for fools only who are blind.people like……. ..who have no stance….look at you……

  22. Mpemba Nkule

    Even Hitler days the economy said to boom UpTo his death!

  23. puzzled

    bafikala stop aguing mayb the world is endn b4 2021 u wil b surprised instead of votn kunvela che trumpet yalila judgement day lets just wait n c if we wil b ther edga or ck,hh muliokela viva mr presdent

  24. Bright munthali

    What the EIU has hinted is what is on the ground all PF needs is to continue working hard and take note of the advise on economic management,and governance.But the coming of GST as new tax would be a game changer, already government has started dismantling its domestic obligations . please as government remain focused, don’t be destructed.

  25. Adriano

    This is really bad for our country! turning 2 dictatorship slowly! So Sad!

  26. De illest

    hell to sale. stupid post deserve nosense comment. bet who is who BUT

  27. Ruth

    The EIU does not want Lungu to win. They are subtly urging opportunity to come together o eave no chance I’d vote stealing

  28. Escape from Sobibo

    2021 HH in state house ,,,you fool’s

  29. enalo

    Be careful with ba muselela kwakaba. They dangerously creat stuations.

  30. ChrisTopher M. Muhammad

    I don’t thing really think so… Currently UPND 67% PF 32% unless Mr lungu clear out some of his corrupt ministers pay off 60% of the national debt and stabilize the Economy.. Maybe the percentage will be 50%-50% before the 2021 Elections.

  31. kedrick siame

    Here in nakonde people are going to die just because of poverty akubunga ni k180 kwacha yalipona kastom it was our industry in nakonde now balisala and there’s no gud water ad roads government not gave fertilize to the people when you take at look of the maize you can cry my sister and brother, then on Thursday GBM he was here in nakonde people state sinning ka balibomba ba chite while there’s no gud roads, industry ad water then i see some foolishness in thire head if there’s MP and good leadership here in nakonde people can’t suffer like the way it’s please people of nakonde choose a leader who will led you to fly for another stage not umwana wapakaya for no direction am not insulting any one but a wise man can’t say that who visited nakonde before GOD bless people of nakonde i no all of these it’s couse of poverty.

  32. Galuu

    You are lies

  33. Kang'ombe

    EIU are you the one who will be voting or Zambians?
    So don’t speak on behalf of them, because uwikala mumpundu eumfwa uko shipona, Kabili umucele ukufina.
    So please, we know who to vote.

  34. WISE

    ONLY GOD KNWS WAT IT WILL COME , MY FELLOW BELIEVER WE CAN’T KNW OBVIOUS THESE AR DE PROBLEMS AD PERSECUTIONS WICH MENTIOND IN DE BIBLE WICH WILL REVEIL EXPLAIN DAT Z DE ENDING V DIZ WORLD DAT WILL BE DE SIGNS WE DON’T KNW , IF U KNW WAT U BELIEVE IN , PLIZ USE UR KNEES DOWN 2 PRAY AD PRAY 4U 2 BE SAVED NT JST INSULTNG EACH OTHER U AR WEASTING UR TYM V PRAYNG 2 DE FATHER IN HEAVEN 4U 2BE FORGIVEN UR SINS , MIND U WE SIN EACH AD EVERY HOUR , Y ? BY OVER LOOKNG, OVER EATNG MISLEAD PIPO , TEMPER, E.T.C SO GOD HIMSELF HE KNWS HW HE WILL TAKE CARE HIS CHOOSEN ONE 4 DE HIS COMING KINDOM AD HW HE WIL PROTECT THEM 4RM ALL DE COMING TROUBLE HE KNWS , PLIZ , PLIZ PIPO LET US STOP INSULTNG EACH OTHER, LET US SEARCH OUT WAT WIL MAKE US 2BE SAVED , IT’S ONLY PRAYING WITHOUT CEANSINGLY AD BELIEVE DAT GOD Z DE SON V MAN, VOTE 4 JESUS PLIZ AD INVITE DE HOLY SPIRIT 2 CONTROLING US IN WATEVER WE UNDERGO, ME I”LL VOTE 4 JESUS , MWAKUZIBONA KAHICHITIKA HYAKAMBA MWAMI AMUKABWEZE MAGWALO ANU MUKABALE, NISHI KUNUNUNA KWASWENA.

  35. B

    Uko! 👻

  36. SEE MIND

    Opposition parties if they will form alliance would win! Without Alliance oppositions will be black papers no plot 1 !!!

    • Dude

      Exactly that is what this report is advising. They ignore the advise and choose to remain in denial. You know why? they cannot form coalition bcoz of selfishness, they all want to go to plot 1. And it is for this reason that ECL will make it. Sometimes I wonder if these opposition are for our interest or theirs? For that reason I choose to support ECL, for the devil you know is better than an angel you don’t know.

  37. Wiseman

    Hakainde Hamulema must step down and give room to someone else. May be they should ask Dr Ngandu Magande, he seem to have the charisma, qualified and appeal to the nation.

  38. Truth man

    This kind of reporting makes media myopic! No difference from Znbc. If you were a newspaper you would soon have wound up due to lack of business, because no-one can buy this type of newspaper. Mind you what has caused Times of Zambia and the tabloids to fail is this kind of half baked objectivity .

  39. Medhone

    UPND has no wining formular. under mazoka it was,a formidable part because he was close to the electorates. but Now HH has lost it, he is livng in SA and want zambians 2 vote 4 him that is very difficult. please learn from mazoka may MHSP

  40. Lisa

    Gone are the days when Pf used to pull crowds. Under Ecl, Pf has laboured to beat HH. On the ground pf has become unpopular and irrelevant. You may try to build image but pf is already a finished unattractive party.

    • Dude

      This what I was talking about. Here she choose to be in denial and live her fantancies. Get real!

  41. Bana Simon

    I wonder why aba ka red can’t take criticism well. They either insult or attack the reporter.

  42. LEE

    PF IS SINKING LIKE ITS SINKING ECONOMY.

  43. Mario Zagalo

    EIU!!! Kekekeke…these are the same chaps that tokd us Rupiah Banda and his MMD, would win 2011. In 2011 Zambias ecenomy was on an upward tragectory, international media houses were talking up Zambia being the top destination fir investment in Africa etc…. MMD still lost!

    Now PF has sunk and plundered the economy to almost a standstill and EIU is predicting a victory? Let us see.

  44. Bashikulu Emma

    I conquer with Dude.The only thing the opposition can do is unite and form a coalition.Problem is selfishness,they hate the word ‘VICE’.This time around,hh would have been in state house if he adhered to what late beloved SATA,mhsrip,told him.And the EIU,is advising opposition parties to come together!Ba ck,have you read this since you said 2021 is yours and are to send people to chimbokaila?Pangeni one team and challenge pf,or else kuwayawaya fye.

  45. Dr Fonicks

    This is wrongly misplaced. Are they the ones going to vote. The report is alarming and false. useless report from a useless author. have they seen what is on the ground. PF don’t be cheated. Personally, I have all along been a staunch supporter of the PF, but recently I have been having doubts about the party I have been supporting for two main reasons. one, alot of Zambians are suffering because of problems caused by the party I support. two, the FIC report has been given a cold shoulder by the hierarchy. These two issues plus the rampant corruption going on leaves much to be desired. The report by the muzungus is useless. moreover, it is just alarming. This can cause anxiety among us Zambians. To hell with this report. kutumpa aba basungu balecita. mwe fipuba fya bantu mwe. why meddle in our internal affairs?

  46. zulu

    let us think twice and before insinde the box let the real God solve this issues for our childrens sake

  47. Voice of the voiceless

    All the comments and contributions are good but not every thing is helpful. My fellow country men and women,let us analyse well good comments given by well wishers.Don’t just surport any how first,see yourself what kind of life are you at in? When someone the eye oppenner flashes something, analyse it well tomorrow you who are praising something without analysing it well,you will cray.We are in trouble in this country things are not going well.The rich will come more rich and the poor will come more poorer.Don’t praise something that is nonsense.

  48. Me

    I am rich, so I will vote for them. Just work hard don’t expect anyone to come and put food on the table.

  49. Lungu

    Nizawina 2021 no matter it cost I am in charge

Comments are closed.