By ZR Reporter

The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) has maintained its prediction that the ruling Patriotic Front will win the 2021 general elections.

And EIU has stated in its report that public confidence in judicial independence in the country has weakened by controversial court rulings.

The United Kingdom based Unit has added that voter confidence in the Electoral Commission of Zambia is also low prior to the 2016 elections which the opposition United Party for National Development (UPND) believe were flawed.

“Public confidence in judicial independence in Zambia has been weakened by controversial court rulings (such as the one in 2018, which entitled Mr Lungu to stand for a third term without breaching the country’s two-term limit) that are often perceived by opponents to favour the ruling party and the president. After the disputed elections in 2016, which returned Mr Lungu and the PF to power (and which the UPND believes it was cheated out of victory in), voter confidence in the Electoral Commission of Zambia is also low. The Economist Intelligence Unit continues to forecast that the PF and Mr Lungu will be able to use their control of the security services (which have long had a partisan bias in favour of the ruling party) and their substantial incumbency advantages from control over state institutions to secure another victory in 2021,” the report read.

Commenting on next year’s general elections which are scheduled for August 12, EIU expects the country to have endured months of political and economic turmoil.

The Unit expects the upcoming elections to be neither free nor fair.

“Zambia’s legislative and presidential elections are scheduled to take place on August 12th 2021. By the time that the elections are held, we expect Zambia to have endured months of political and economic turmoil, and economic contraction will limit the fiscal resources available for government patronage networks, forcing the PF into a more openly authoritarian position. We expect the upcoming elections to be neither free nor fair, with the opposition competing against a PF exploiting substantial incumbency advantages. These include a drive to create a new electoral roll to replace the 2005 voter register, which the opposition claims will bias the register in favour of voters living in government strongholds. This is likely to yield only a low turnout owing to the opposition’s diminished political capital and the risk of repression from state forces,” read the report.

And the Unit has noted that the ruling PF of failing to change the country’s constitution.

“A controversial bid to amend Zambia’s constitution ahead of the presidential and legislative elections in 2021 by the ruling Patriotic Front (PF) party has failed to reach the threshold of 111 votes (which is two-thirds majority) in the Zambian parliament it required to become law. Legal challenges to the Constitution of Zambia (Amendment) Bill No. 10 of 2019 had previously been blocked by the country’s Constitutional Court, leaving the country’s parliament as the last forum where it could be blocked. Since its introduction the bill had sparked accusations from the Zambian opposition that it was a bill aimed at entrenching the ruling party and the country’s president, Edgar Lungu, in power,” read the report.


  1. Gibson

    You don’t need a rocket scientist to measure the strength of PF on the ground unlike upnd who are just popular on social media with a Bally who has lost elections for 6 times. In short we don’t have a strong opposition party which can dislodge PF.Beind popular in southern province cannot take you to state house.You had a rally in chilenje which was a total rejection from Lusaka.

    • Ble

      Mulelya bwino ati?…..for you everything is well at the moment…..

  2. Moses

    I was at that rally I thought may be Lusaka would come to a standstill but it was like supporters of kalikeka rangers. I conquer with you Gibson it was disaster for HH.

  3. Concerned citizen amplified

    He would have been a president of zambia if he did not break away from the pf _ upnd pact but because of being greed he lost it.

  4. Old Mzee

    PF is still very strong on the ground and are making inroads in western and North Western Provinces.
    My advice to UPND is as follows
    1.HH should appoint a Vice President.
    2.The SG is not very effective and should be replaced.
    3.Change the strategy unlike copy and paste of what PF is doing.
    4.Sell their manifesto unlike now when they are just riding on economic problems.The 10 point plan failed in 2016.
    5.Go on the ground and be visible.Unlike on facebook and Twiter.Learn something from USA
    election of 2020.
    6.The Opposition is totally divided so UPND should give and take something unlike now when they want to use other parties as Trojan Horses to ride on to state house.
    Lastly the good rains this season and the opening of Kafue Gorge Lower may reduce load shedding which will favour PF as there will be a bumper harvest and more small businesses will thrive due to reduced load shedding.

  5. Tikambepo

    Listen to these foolish fools instead of getting the sense from what the author is saying they just rush to conclude that indeed they are popular…..these days in our community out of 20 people you meet 18are opposition and 2 or 1 is PF,so where does that so called London based EIU gets its assessment from?????? Come 2021 you see the real situation.

    • Mk p

      True in my area alone people that used to be staunch supporters of PF Have got nothing good to say about PF. Every where u go in Lusaka…majority want them out.

  6. Choolwe Haantuba

    Zambia does not need change of Govt. What we need more than ever before is to retire Hakainde so that we bring back peace to our country . Not this war mongering politician. He came to UPND and brought violence, if given power he is going to use the police and do more violence. HH cannot go to state house on a bollot paper he can only do that through violence. This is why when the country is quiet he agitates for violence.

  7. Lufwinyemba

    Wait! you see for your self. HH tetiapite

  8. Phinias

    Upnd might have made in roads in Lusaka and copper belt but they have not captured the provinces in total pf has still a bigger steak.if you don’t know people in Zambian elections are voting on tribal grounds which was started by upnd and HH.To be honest it’s very difficult for HH to be president of zambia unless people from southern province vote with civility and not what we have been seeing in the past election. You can call us fools as stated by my brother tikambepo but we are being real. Continue insulting us but mark my words HH is losing again if you don’t change upnd leadership structure.In the state upnd is in now if me I can’t vote for HH.

  9. Jimmy shaba

    Don’t rule hh out.he stands a better chance among the opposition

  10. Ngoma Yamaano

    Read EIU report just before RB lost elections. EIU has a tendency of projecting the ruling regime as the winner of upcoming elections. So UPND should just use this negative projection to mobilise people to vote for UPND.

  11. Ble

    Okay let’s see….. of course of is popular still,but I feel the President has become so selfish interms of relinquishing power to others since his time is over…..KBF for example,he(The President) should now strength the party by supporting KBF or any other suitable candidate just like they supported him………

  12. Razor

    The EIU report is correct when it says the elections will be neither free nor fair and that is why they predict PF to win because they expect PF to manipulate everything in their favor. Fortunately people power will prevail and the zambian people will not allow the PF to manipulate elections this time round.

  13. Tikambepo

    The eiu clearly states that high cost of living,voter confidence in the electoral commission of Zambia,that the elections won’t be free and fair and the use of state security…..The above article is clearly pointing at the failures of your adadas and pf.This time around PF has no numbers to beat the reds and I want to put it on the record that the earlier the better this time around there shall be no high jacking of UPND by the katyetye mwenda mwalimwa the way they did to Mr SATA where they killed him to usurp the power zero!!!!!!

  14. Tikambepo

    If we change government we shall not allow defections of PF’s senior members to join our party WALA …..coz these recycled politicians are the ones who become big headed when they last in institutions of governance,their balls becomes so saturated that they fill as though they are the only people can do the job.We are going to retire all who have saved more than three times.

  15. Cosmas Moonga

    HH appoint a vice President time is running out if you do not have one iin mind let the members pick one by means of voting. Stop being a Chief Mourner that can be done by your vice.



  17. Musyani

    I think if all opposition came together then let that guy garry nkombo stand as the preferred president,the guy is good and appealing they can win.
    If they go into this election as independent parties pf will win as we can read this from recent bye elections.

  18. niso Kodibba

    Its a psychological Statement by EIU to cool down pf from the pressure by upnd, in order to promote peace and fredom of expression in the country..coz surely these issues of violence, police upndcadres instability in the country is due to pressure pf doesn’t want to give free room for upnd to campaign…..

  19. Joe Mask

    The EIU can be right or wrong that’s the fact, maybe it’s an eye opener gesture to opposition to step up there game, I see no full energy in the opposition come next year it can be great if covid19 vaccine is found so that we can have equal political rally ground all the best to the winner I will vote wisely.

  20. Gessik

    While PF is randomly punching holes in the so called UPND strong holds ,UPND is casually bathing in public sympathy.waiting for the general public to rise against govt due to the economic situation .While PF is busy planning and strategizing on how to pick up votes in places where it will be difficult for their counterparts ,UPND on the other hand is busy engrossing itself in irrelevant acts consequently eating away time for them to sit down and plan how to win the elections.Elections are a battle,and you can’t win a battle without strategy or a plan .Perhaps this is why EIU has given that opinion.UPND is the only party that is just there ,but may lose it if not we’ll handled.UPND should stop ‘following ‘PF, rather should come up with a tangible roadmap to remove PF.its not easy to remove a sitting govt from power.Check through all our elections here in Africa.In most cases they are always bizarre.

  21. JMS

    Nomatter how you regard yourselves as 2021 popular party and winning party you are mistaken, even God is amazed of how you make laws,its just an issane who can regard a criminal to have a vote of confidence. If judiciary is independent how has the law being affected by controversial as if judiciary was manned by pf. if it was sata himself mhsrip he wouldn’t worry because the winning party could have been his but no fear is among them thats why the keep on issisting the strong party as weak as they are.

  22. Ceejeyy

    As for the opposition leader that you have continued to hunt for, when will you ever learn that he is not the kind of man who can be cowed out of the race with teargas and guns? Do you see any fear in his eyes even when you try to intimidate him?

    Go on and increase his political fame with those your primitive political threats so that all Zambians can know him for who he really is: the next president of Zambia and the hope for national healing. HH is winning because PF you have done your own damage.

  23. Ceejeyy

    My opinion if you want Opposition to win 2020 elections, let Kalaba, Kambwili and HH join together and form an alliance. HH President, either Kalaba or Kambwili vice. If you don’t make an alliance I tell you PF will rule forever.

  24. Jms

    Don’t worry the game is on, intelligence brings fear in stupid people who wish to receive things on a silver plate but our main and kind leader wishes all Zambians good luck in their thinking to return the beautiful country on truck.

  25. big Denny

    The problem is our opposition political parties are too arrogant to take advice with regard to winning strategy hence they will remain cry babies all the time seeking sympathy from the general public.Great Michael did his homework and mmd was left limping in rural outskirts unlike todays opposition.

  26. Elias Njovu

    In times of crisis the wise build Bridges while the foolish build dams.

  27. jj

    Not in Nchelenge. ….. here no UPND not pf

  28. jj

    Not in Nchelenge. ….. here ni UPND epela not pf kulya mo fye capwa

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